- WHY UHURU IS CAMPAIGNING AS A BITTER MAN.
Assuming that we maintain all factors at a constant, can someone just tell me how jubilee will win apart from rigging and witchcraft?
For instance, look at this detailed analysis.
1. Jubilee Strongholds with an increase of +5% voter turnout of 2013 is projected as follows:
1.Kiambu County (96%)1,133,683
2.Nyeri County (98%)447,810
3.Uasin Gishu County (86%)387,047
4.Kericho County (91%)341,857
5.Kirinyaga County (91%)318,350
6.Nandi County (90%)311,406
7.Nyandarua County (94%)315,495
8.Laikipia County (90%)221,838
9. Egeiyo Marakwet (92%)166,210
10. Murang’a County (94%)551,898
11.Baringo County (91%)211,627
Total projected votes: 4,407,221
2. NASA Strongholds with an increase of +3% voter turnout of 2013 is projected as follows:
1.Kakamega County (84%)797,679
2.Machakos County (84%)521,013
3.Mombasa County (66.62%)386,544
4.Bungoma County (86%)498,266
5.Kisumu County (90%)485,289
6.Homa Bay County (94%)448,262
7.Kitui County (85%)404,560
8.Siaya County (92%)421,316
9.Makueni County (85%)359,813
10.Migori County (92%)357,542
11.Busia County (88%)308,922
12.Vihiga County (83%)226,099
Total projected votes: 5,572,847
3. Up for grabs (50%-50%) Counties with an increase of +3% voter turnout compared to 2013 election is projected as follows:
1.Nairobi County (82%)1,845,699
2.Kajiado County (87%)357,737
3.Garissa County (80%)130,680
4.Wajir County (85%)138,466
5.Marsabit County (86%)121,868
6.Tana River County (81%)95,844
7.Samburu County (88%)72,852
8.Isiolo County (87%)65,544
Total projected up for grabs votes: 2,828,690
Thus:
Jubilee: 1,414,345
NASA: 1,414,345
4. Battle Ground Counties (80%- 20%) in favour of Jubilee with an increase of +4% voter turnout compared to 2013 elections is projected as follows:
1.Nakuru County (89%)845,160
2.Meru County (88%)618,182
3.Narok County (90%)307,557
4.Bomet County (84%)200,810
5.Embu County (88%)272,330
6.Tharaka Nithi County (89%)189,707
8.West Pokot County (90%)162,208
9.Mandera County (84%)147,539
10.Lamu County (84%)58,611
Total projected votes: 2,891,104.
Thus
Jubilee (80%) 2,312,883
NASA (20%) 578,221
5. Battle Ground (70%-30%) Counties in favour of NASA with an increase of +2% of 2013 voter turnout is projected as follows:
1. Kisii County (84%) 459,127
2.Kilifi County (65%) 330,244
3.Trans Nzoia County (82%) 278,490
4.Kwale County (72%) 202,349
6.Nyamira County (84%) 234,009
7.Turkana County (76%) 145,490
8. Taita Taveta County (81%) 126,129
Total projected votes: 1,775,838
Thus:
NASA (70%) 1,243,086
Jubilee (30%) 532,751
Breakdown
Jubilee
1.Stronghold Counties (85% and above): 4,407,221
2. Up for grabs Counties (50-50%): 1,414,345
3. (80%-20%) in Jubilee’s favour; 2,312,883
4. (70%-30%)in NASAs favour; 532,751
Grand projected votes (4,407,221+1,41
4,345+2,312,883+532,751) 8,667,200
NASA
1)Strongholds (85% and above) Counties; 5,572,847
2)Up for grabs (50%-50%)Counties; 1,414,345
3) (70%-30%) Counties in favour of NASA; 1,243,086
4) (80%-20%) Counties in favour of Jubilee; 578,221
Grand projected total (5572847+141434
5+867331+1243086) 8,808,499
Total votes projected: (8,667,200 + 8,808,499) 17,475,699
Deduct 5% of grand projected votes from each side to take care of spoilt votes and other candidates
Jubilee: 433,360
NASA: 440,425
Total: 873,785
Final projected votes.
1)Jubilee (8,667,200-433,360) 8,233,840= 47.6%
2)NASA (8,808,499-440,425) 8,468,074 = 52.4%
Grand total: 8,233,840+8,468,074
16,691,914
Conclusion: To be declared a presidential winner, a candidate needs to garner at least 50+1 of the total valid votes.
Exposed: Why Uhuru is Campaigning as a bitter Angry Man
Date:
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