By Gilbert O Kenya
About a month ago, I said It here that the new propaganda in town is the assertion that, we will know the winner of the presidency, in the forthcoming August 8th polls, at the end of the voter registration. Sure enough, when the voter registration commenced, we heard gov’t operatives, led by none other than the DP, loudly proclaiming that the winner of this year’s August 8th presidential elections will be known by the end of the registration exercise. They looked cock sure that their “strongholds” would obviously come on top in terms of registration of new voters.
Then we started hearing of incidences of foreigners being registered as voters, multiple registrations using single IDs and illegal parallel voter registration conducted by NYS, being exposed! All these were happening in regions which are perceived to be pro-gov’t. Need you be a genius to know why the DP and his brigade sounded so sure of registering more voters?
The malpractices make the authenticity of the numbers of targeted eligible voters, in different regions of Kenya, released while the bitter and disgraced IEBC commissioners were illegally in office, highly questionable. What if the figures were cooked to pave way for the abovementioned registration malpractices? This is one more reason why we must not make a mistake of going to the next elections without a clean and verifiable voter register. We have also heard of the shocking revelations that the names of our ancestors still exist in the voters’ register!
In spite of all these misgivings, the assertion that we now know who the winner of the presidency will be, based on the numbers of registered voters in various regions, is premised on grossly flawed and misguided thinking, for three reasons:
1. That the two sides of the political divide still have their 2013 “strongholds” (a polite word for tribal bases) under lock and key. We all know that the dynamics have since significantly changed, especially in areas perceived to be Jubilee “strongholds,” such as many counties in the Rift Valley and parts of Eastern Kenya like Meru and Tharaka Nithi.
2. That citizens in the so-called “strongholds” are mere voting machines, locked up somewhere, only to be unleashed on voting day, and that they must vote in a certain way – without engaging their brains – regardless of the current gov’t’s glaring underperformance! This is not only totally demeaning to the sane citizens of these regions, but also pure wishful thinking.
3. Finally; that all registered voters will vote to the last man and woman. Only an irreparably daft politician can underestimate the possible voter apathy that’s likely to be witnessed in this year’s elections. A large section of voters are immensely disappointed, if not totally disillusioned, by the current gov’t’s unprecedented incompetence and clear lack of political leadership, in the face of the many serious problems afflicting a majority of Kenyans.
Trust me, come 8th of August this year, the only voting block that will have a serious drive of getting out early, and patiently wait in the long queues to vote, is the block that has already decided to cast a protest vote against the current gov’t. What’s even more interesting is that; this block exists in every part of the country. This block is likely to be the real game changer.
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Those using fake intellectuals to flaunt numbers of registered voters, in the media, in a bid to revive the non-existent theory of “Tyranny of Numbers” are blatantly hoodwinking Kenyans. The theory is simply a mirage that cannot sell in 2017.
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