By Jim Bonnie
In Migori senatorial by-election,Eddy Oketch is youth and that’s where it ends. He will lose the contest for the following reasons:
1. Eddy has no campaign message except that he’s youth. That cliche doesn’t sell these days.
2. Has a disorganized campaign, focuses too much on flaunting big cars, choppers and dishing out cash. Any fool who dishes cash will always attract crowds.
3. Eddy comes from Kanyamkago clan, Uriri constituency, where the governor hails from. Even if Migorians are the dumbest in the world, there’s no way the governor and senator, two key dockets, can go to one constituency.
Why he’ll get votes
He has captured urban youths and Kuria votes. Kuria hates anything ODM and Raila. He’ll also grab Obado’s supporters.
Ochilo Ayacko.
He comes from Awendo constituency. He will win but the margin may be narrower than expected. Before you look at me that way, these are the reasons.
1. Governor Obado’s supporters will vote for Eddy, not because they like him but because they want to teach ODM and Raila a lesson. They have been made to believe that ODM is behind Obado’s tribulations. It’s silly indeed. (they’re chasing a wild goose)
2. And this is the major one, even though Ochilo is gonna win, he was a terrible choice for the party. Many core party supporters don’t like him. Selling him even among party members has been like selling pork in Iran. Many disgruntled party members may opt not vote. This is the main fear. On the flip side, Ochilo can make a superb senator, he has all the qualities.
Outcome.
This election will be decided on the turnout. If Uriri, Kuria and Obado supporters in various constituencies turn our in record numbers, motivated by the incarceration of their leader, then Ochilo is cooked. If party supporters turnout in large numbers in Monday, Ochilo is home and dry.
Matrix
Migori has 8 constituencies. Nyatike, Uriri, Kuria East, Kuria West, Awendo, Rongo, Suna East, Suna West. Eddy will scoop Uriri and take a fair share in the remaining constituencies. Ochilo will take Rongo and Awendo who will vote him to a man and win the remaining constituencies. I must admit that Kuria is unpredictable, I don’t know who will lead in the two constituencies.
Congratulations Ochilo for your early victory. Congrats to eddy for a fight well fought. You’ve a bright political future.
(I’ve already checked into my room ready for what came may 😅. Wisdom will kill me)
