By E Njega
Sometime the reasoning you see on social media makes you feel like quiting social media.
I have seen so many people you can consider intelligent asking ridiculous questions.
I am seeing a lot of people asking why people are not dying in their numbers if coronavirus is really in Kenya. Their argument is that even without testing people would still be falling sick and dying.
We had four months to observe the virus and many still don’t understand how it works.
Coronavirus operates beneath the surface like a submarine till a tipping point is reached in terms of numbers and then hell breaks loose.
This is because its spread is exponential. One person infects 2.5 people. The 2.5 infect 6.25 the 6.5 infect 15.6 etc. Get the drift?
If the infectious base is smaller and transmission rate lower obviously it means the crisis is delayed but its potency should never be denied or underestimated.
In Africa we have a young population, good weather and low density due to lower urbanisation. All these are positive factors but they don’t imply immunity or basis for complacency.
These factors together with containment measures slow down the virus but it doesn’t mean you wouldn’t hit the tipping point.
The only way to avoid getting there is by containing the virus the way South Korea has done.
I also heard someone ask why we have a night curfew as if the virus only infects people at night.
This is another nonsensical question unless you have never heard of probability. The more people interact the higher the chance/probability of infection.
If the curfew lowers the volume of human interaction by say 30% it lowers the transmission rate. Of course it doesn’t end the transmissions but it lowers them.
