ANALYSIS Y: MIGORI SENATORIAL BY-ELECTION
By Meshack Odhiambo
Finally it is Dalmas Otieno vs Ochillo Ayacko.
It’s obvious that Migori Senator will come from the larger Rongo (Rongo/Awendo constituencies). The race is therefore between Dalmas and Ochillo.
The following factors will work against Ochillo.
1. Direct nomination
2. Gov. Okoth Obado factor
3. Kuria & Luhya community factor
4. NASA fall-out
5. Poor development track record
6. Inconsistency (mara Governor, mara SRC, mara Ambassador, now Senator!).
Factors in favour of Ochillo:
1. Intact support base
2. Sympathy votes
3. Raila Odinga factor
4. ODM Party factor
The following factors will work against Dalmas:
1. Raila Odinga factor
2. ODM party factor
Factors in favour of Dalmas:
1. One of the best development track records in Kenya
2. Massive influence nationally and even regionally.
3. Gov. Obado support
4. Handshake politics
5. Disgruntled former Mps support
OPINION POLL:
1. RONGO
Ochillo – 10% Dalmas – 90%
2. AWENDO
Ochillo – 70% Dalmas – 30%
3. URIRI
Ochillo – 30% Dalmas – 70%
4. SUNA EAST
Ochillo – 90% Dalmas – 10%
5. SUNA WEST
Ochillo – 65% Dalmas – 35%
6. NYATIKE
Ochillo – 55% Dalmas – 45%
7. KURIA WEST
Ochillo 20% Dalmas – 80%
8. KURIA EAST
Ochillo 15% Dalmas – 85%
AGGREGATE:
Dalmas Otieno = 56%
Ochillo Ayacko = 44%
Hon. Dalmas Otieno is likely to become the 2nd Senator of Migori County.
Assumptions:
1. Voter turnout will be equal in each of the 8 constituencies.
2. No massive rigging
